129773822124843750_130Since March, the Chinese economic cold, PMI index rose fell. After the first drop of GDP target for eight years, have also caused market participants much interpretation. Policy for 2012 and macro-economic trends at home and abroad
tera gold, today on March 25 by the DBS Bank's "journey to 2012, DBS Bank a big Fortune Global ForumIsland life "on financial Zhong Wei, Director of the research center of Beijing Normal University believes that from the overseas market, go down to China's economic growth in the euro zone to reserve space; in the country, term is not optimistic about China's growth, in the short term is not pessimistic; macroeconomic policy, monetary policy will be shifted from stable to neutral, investment opportunities, good debt than equity. Destruction of Europe to China's riseOpportunities Zhong Wei says, in Europe most likely is a magnified version of the future of Japan. Japan 20 years from 92 to the present, Japan nationals to a longer working life, more actively saving gesture, more creative power and Government expenditure on welfare care, Japan economy still has the impressive growth in the past 20 years. In contrast, European citizens wish to bearWorrying in terms of willingness to even longer working hours, more frugal spending, cuts on government welfare and other aspects. Europe's international status will decline in the future
tera power leveling, but for China and the United States have a certain positive development effects. Because the destruction of the European international political discourse, channels, brand rights, resources, market share in other countries, these will beUnited States occupies, of which a small portion will also be owned by China. United States, Zhong Wei said the United States growth was relatively optimistic, United States economy is showing signs medium-term for the better, but the United States also did not return to long term economic growth trend line, therefore it cannot be concluded that United States had come out of the subprime mortgage crisis. Term is not optimistic about China's economy, in the short term is not pessimistic about ChinaEconomic trends, Zhong Wei expressed his cautious view, in his view, the term is not optimistic about China's economy, in the short term is not pessimistic. Zhong Wei said, in the long term, open global era of globalization is getting away from us. Reversal of investment liberalization
tera power leveling, trade protectionism in developed countries increased remarkably. Road tough Chinese export-oriented growth. In addition, because of political centralization brings efficiencyLow rates, as well as the ageing of the population, resources, environment and other aspects of the problem. This is not optimistic about China's long-term growth. But he also believes that the short-term economy do not have particularly pessimistic. He said, if the policy to the appropriate fine tuning this year, growth remained above 8% levels. The year, economic growth slipped some greater pressure than expected. InflationDown upbeat judge less than expected. Therefore, as far as 2012, area to get good return on investment, requires very strong intelligence and market judgment. Monetary policy shifted from stable neutral throughout the trend of macro-economic policies, Zhong Wei expected 2012 shifted from stable to neutral monetary policy, fiscal policy shift from positive to neutral.He said, 2 quarter line may faster-than-expected GDP growth, inflation down may be slower than expected. No obvious signs of adjustment of fiscal and monetary policy. The relative tightening of monetary policy after 2011-12 years, may gradually become more neutral, sufficient liquidity, fund prices steadily downward. Overdraft fiscal policy remains in the digestive tract of the subprime crisis policy, budget deficit ratePer cent-1%, more balanced, more neutral and balanced fiscal and monetary policy, and also for the transfer of the State Department team, was a good atmosphere. Debt capital market is better than stock analysis of Zhong Wei pointed out that, since the beginning, promote capital market upward primarily three factors: the first is the warming of external markets. The second factor is the strong expectations of easing,Third factor is the capital market valuations of self-healing. The three factors in the second quarter, the first factor is still there, but tends to weaken. The second factor, easing is expected, probably in vain. Third factor valuation self-healing, how much? Very questionable. Therefore, he expected, adjustment of the running of the capital market in the second quarter may be hyper-Second quarter. On the capital markets is relatively optimistic for the year, investment opportunities, good debt than equity, at the same time index better than industry.
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