if the missed opportunity of reform

At present, the risk in a significant increase in the global economy, but on the whole a second recession is unlikely. In 2012, 2013, the global economy will face greater risks. Main problems in Europe 2012 swtor power leveling, 2013, the main issues are in the United States. 2012 European economic growth could be negative, which isBall's economic situation is a big challenge. United States economic growth in 2012 is expected to be around 2%, but in 2013 may drop to zero or even negative growth. 　　We need to pay close attention, even if the world does not appear a second recession, we still need to prepare for a crisis. United States economic recovery with setbacks United States economy is possible in the next few years to maintainLow-speed growth, does not exclude may 2013 into a recession. The global financial crisis caused by subprime mortgage crisis. Figure 1 shows the financial position of the major countries in the world, countries many of the problems, such as Greece, and Italy, and Portugal and the United States. Almost all developed countries have debt crisis could break out, and more vulnerable to the debt crisis erupted in public debt andPer cent deficit countries with higher proportion of GDP. United States economic recovery with setbacks is due to the nature of the crisis led to the balance sheet of the root causes of recessions, out of the process of the financial crisis is the process of gradually repair their balance sheets. An economy can usually be classified as Government, financial, other residents and enterprises in four departments. "Nature's balance sheetEconomic recession "refers to the balance sheets of all major sectors of the economy suffered a serious injury, so after the recession ends, each Department scrambling to repair their balance sheets and reduce leverage, unwilling to continue debt. Departments, including the enterprise is no longer with the goal of profit maximization, but rather to lower debt levels for critical tasks. Characterized by inadequate aggregate demand, traditional monetary policyUse is limited. United States to achieve economic recovery, enterprise that is relatively healthy balance sheet to support residents, Governments, financial institutions, three patches of the balance sheet, which will be a tortuous and protracted process. 　　United States economy is unlikely to be in 2012 and 2013, will be able to get better. United States economy faces a long deleveraging process the old republic power leveling, with a totalDemand subdued. United States Government's high deficit, debt, restricting flexibility for fiscal policy, is not conducive to supporting economic development. Currently lack of significant new economic growth points. 　　Therefore, began to appear in the first quarter of 2011, the marked slowdown in economic growth, is a corollary to macroeconomic factors reflected on economic growth. At present, the United States population gradually increasedPlus deposits, banks were also becoming deleveraging process, the debt ratio fell sharply, and the United States has fallen sharply on the balance sheet expansion of government departments. The so-called economic stimulus plan is in fact through the extent of the damage to an increase in Government balance sheet, to repair the balance sheet of the other three departments. United States will continue to bear the long-term pressure to reduce total debt. We made aInitial calculations, if the repair to healthier levels until 2018, which performed a one-term President under the ruling of the time to complete. Enterprise sector, United States business investment remains a key factor in driving economic recovery. But because of the companies holding large amounts of cash, and unclear expectations of future growth prospects, so enterprises did not further increase the investmentFunded plans, the United States economic growth process of a certain degree of inhibition. If confidence is to increase investment, improving job market. Even if the United States experienced a century of crises, but United States enterprises profit is unexpectedly well, this has not happened before. We predict 2011 p 500 earnings realized 15% of positive growth, 2012Is 12%, while China 2011, all a-share earnings growth may be 15% in 2012, only around 10%. The financial sector, has been effectively restored after the financial crisis on the balance sheet, risk-resistant ability. But because of the lack of corporate loan demand, resident and Enterprise deposits increasing United States commercial bank credits and depositsGap increased, and is not conducive to sustained economic recovery. 　　In addition, from the macro level, United States M2 increase the larger, but increasing the money supply does not cause inflation, because the corporate investment willingness is not strong, money multiplier fell, leading to failure of monetary transmission mechanism. The Government sector, United States Government debt and fiscal deficit will remain high over the next 10 yearsIssue bonds in need approximately $ 6 trillion. 　　The Obama administration's plan to cut the deficit in the next 10 years the total amount of approximately US $ 2.5 trillion, which could in the next 2 years on pulling down the GDP exceeds 2%. 　　In short, United States economy could maintain slow growth in the coming years, did not rule out 2013 into a recession. European debt crisis prolongedIf Italy, and France's problem from getting worse, may be banking system crisis. Outbreak of the debt crisis in Europe stems from the differences between the countries is too large, and lack of effective policy coordination mechanisms among the countries. Eurozone labour costs serious disagreement, fundamental theory of optimum currency areas conditions are not met. Differences in unemployment of the Member States norOften, may take a decade to reach a new equilibrium. These differences significant symbiosis between countries within the eurozone, on the importance of effective coordination mechanisms in policy, including fiscal transfers, but which is not be achieved under the present situation in Europe. When setting up the European Union at that time, Germany worried about excessive reliance on other countries than Germany, so intentionally made a tiny EU governments. The European UnionFinancial expenditure at their disposal only 1% per cent of EU GDP, and these 1% of GDP but also poverty alleviation in Africa, for missions, large translation teams, and so on, so there are not enough funds for the financial transfer payment. The European Central Bank is not a conventional Bank, for this we need to deeply understand. When the design of the European Central Bank, try copying the Germany Central BankMode, the target is a stable currency and stable inflation. Now Germany largest economies, economic growth is the best, face the problem of inflation, and for the other countries concerned were facing problems of deflation. If you want to take care of Germany the interests, the European Central Bank will raise interest rates, but taking care of other countries should cut interest rates. So, policy coordination mechanisms in the euro zone is very difficult to resolve.European Bank to "European pig five" has a huge exposure, tightening of funds, which recently received some attention. 　　If Italy, and France's problem from getting worse, risk is further increased, may be banking system crisis. If Germany pays now address the euro issue, there are three main disadvantages. The first is Germany pays too much. Second, the funeralLost opportunities to reform, such as Italy after World War II has been relying on devaluations, inflation came, no real reforms, Portugal, and Spain, too, the Greece problem is more serious. So much of the crisis do not reform, if the missed opportunity of reform, the problem may be bigger. Third, if Germany now resolved this issue, euro-dollar would significantlyAppreciation, this would damage Germany interests can also damage the euro-zone interests. If the eurozone collapse, also there are three main disadvantages. First, Germany as the heart of the eurozone countries, indifference, the political cost is very large. Secondly, Germany withdrew from the eurozone, Mark's hands, in the short term may be 30% per cent against the dollar, so that Germany cannot afford. Third, theOther EU country will Germany irresponsible practices of hostility, all countries are implementing protectionist, Germany's exports will be a great shock. Therefore, euro collapse or rely solely on Germany tide is unlikely to be a eurozone problem solving Germany's best option. What would be the end result? I think it will pump the bellows-like, when problems come to hangCliff edge when pulled back, and the problems of countries themselves. 　　Therefore, the European debt crisis will become a persistent problem. 　　2012: China preparing for crisis even in the absence of a second recession, China's environment is challenging next year. The future, United States, Europe's two largest developed economies will be extremely loose monetary policy, whichSample external environment will impact how emerging markets and China's economy, this is a very worthy of our attention. In 2012 there will be some emerging market countries twin deficits. 2011 currency has problems in some emerging market countries, such as India and Korea national currency exchange rate depreciation cent in September 2011. If emerging markets shuffleWords, higher than the 2011 2012 financial market risk. 2011 events three exceeded expectations in financial markets. Overall, 2011 overseas hedge funds are not easy to make money, except those that sang the air State funds and other emerging markets. Why not make money? First, the oil market 2011 there is a big adjustment, the United StatesAdoption of regulatory measures have been speculation in the oil market space. Second, the gold market in 2011, squeezed out the water. Third, the currency market speculation the high Swiss franc and Yen also unsustainable. Of course, overseas also does anyone really believe that China's economy is a big problem. 　　This shows that the market is still not optimistic for 2012. Overall, I thinkBall economic 2012 may not double dip. Compared to United States, Europe will face greater risks. Because of financial and political election-related reasons, United States 2013 will become more serious. Now markets to China's attention more and more, including some negative attention. Therefore, even in the absence of a second recession, China's environment is challenging in the next two years.We need to start preparing for the crisis.