129668682405156250_96In October, China's foreign exchange accounts for incremental growth for the first time since a 46-month, one-month decrease of 24.892 billion yuan. Last month Foreign Exchange account for negative growth was ahead of the December 2007 financial crisis, it is caused due to the hot money return in developed countries.
The negative growth of foreign exchange for China's bubble economy means what? Hot-running led to negative growthChina's foreign exchange accounts for increments is usually made up of two pieces: the trade surplus and foreign direct investment (FDI) growth, on the other hand was not to be interpreted in part, namely the international hot money. October 17 billion dollar surplus in China and US $ 8.3 billion FDI, are positive, but foreign exchange accounts for why negative?
The main reason is that outflow of hot money. In fact,In September this year, there are signs of withdrawal of hot money. On September 22, one year of NDF (the US dollar against renminbi non-deliverable forwards) contract there was heavy selling, closing to rise eight basis points to 730, reflecting the single currency expected to depreciate bulls expect. The end of October, in Hong Kong and the mainland market of RMB exchange rate inverted,, including silverHong Kong's institutions have no dollar positions sold.
This series of phenomena bodes well for negative growth in October, China's foreign exchange. Since its reform and appreciation of the Yuan against the dollar there has always been high expectations. Carry trade overseas hot money betting on Yuan revaluation caused, large amounts of money into China leading to exchange money occupation remain high. While some financial institutions and enterprises in ChinaCarrying out arbitrage. Duiwaijingmaodaxue said in an interview with the weekly red Professor Ding zhijie, "the end of June 2011, foreign exchange assets less liabilities of financial institutions and enterprises, positions are negative. Indicate that enterprises not only in the past sold it to the Bank of foreign exchange earnings, also borrowed from overseas removals and then sold to the Central Bank ". And now because of dollar liquidity in the international market is extremely nervous, and the Yuan risePressure weakened, leading overseas hot money return, those who borrow meeting institutions had to return $, United States after August money supply data boost is also supported. Of course, the property market down is also grounds for withdrawal of overseas capital, "the past few years, get a windfall of overseas hot money mainly in real estate market, aware of China's real estate development limited
swtor power leveling, many hot money coming, want to fallBag. "
Li youhuan, Director of development of social science research center of Guangdong Province on the magazine said.
History will repeat itself? In December 2007 after negative growth of foreign exchange, the a-share market feixie from 6,124 points, particularly from the September 2008 continued outflow
Diablo 3 Power Leveling, the entire four hot about US $ 120 billion ~1400 billion for the quarter. Lapse of 46 monthsMeeting once again negative
Diablo 3 Gold, is this is the beginning of a new round of economic downturn? HSBC PMI released this week the first three quarters of above-scale industrial enterprises increase the value and continued the momentum of the economic slowdown.
The repetition of history, is it? Both the background is quite different. Four years ago, the international financial market liquidity is relatively lax. Hot money is relatively high degree of risk preference, when withdrawnIs based on the global economic crisis. After 2008 risk aversion persists for a sharp reduction in the risk tolerance of hot money, since the beginning of this year's United States risk index VIX has been at a high level, which led to economic problems will cause flight capital back each time. Hong Yuan securities (000562 valuation, assessment, quotes, news, the major trading) macro-analysis DivisionQin Peijing magazine said that in the case of large changes in the amount of currency is not, reconfiguration of global capital, understandably, does not have to worry too much. The outflow of hot money does not mean that China's real economy is very bad.
Ding zhijie believed that the outflow of hot money and cannot be seen as a weak signal for China's future economic situation. Or force the deposit down foreign exchange accounted for 10 yearsIs the main channel of the basic money supply in China. This year, each formed 30 million dollars will improve Central Bank's foreign exchange reserve to hedge against foreign exchange increase.
Large amounts of foreign exchange inflows were also kidnapped China's monetary policy, making it lack of independence. From the reporter interviewed a number of experts, negative growth in foreign exchange in the near future with a certain degree ofContinued, but most will not continue in the first quarter of next year. Due to the significant impact on foreign exchange surpluses in the future will continue to decline over time, exchange money occupation Delta hub will decline, monthly data wave hub will not remain as before in more than 200 billion yuan, thus increasing the independence of the Central Bank's monetary policy. "Outflow of hot money making monetary policy in ChinaPressure reduction may be the increase in the fine tuning or appear much in advance. "Li youhuan said.
HSBC PMI initial value rapidly fell to 48 on Wednesday, the preview value last month declined 3 points, in particular the index of output and new orders index is significantly down, showing insufficient power of supporting small and medium-sized manufacturing recovery. Although the Central Bank on Thursday denied in Zhejiang rural credit system 5Frame cut deposit rates is the overall cut banks ' reserve requirements rate signal, but the Bank still greatly lowered the deposit. Standard Chartered Bank China Economist at Standard Chartered said the Government is likely to lower deposit reserve ratio by the end, and will get launched before the Spring Festival. Even if the Central Bank would not cut the deposit during the year, but also through open market operations of behavioural change currencySupply of, and greater than previously fine tuning. Gold-line statement: Gold-line reproduced above, does not indicate that confirm the description for investor use only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors a basis for action, at your own risk.
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